Abraham Accords Mark II!

Mecca in Saudi Arabia is the spiritual home to Sunni Islam and birthplace of Prophet Mohammad. The Saudi Kingdom connects with hundreds of millions of Muslim pilgrims and influences global Islamic sentiment. Qatar is Saudi Arabia's neighbor, but the Saudi's strongly disagreed with their aggressive promotion of global Islamic Jihad, adopted in-part to counter Saudi influence. 

Iran is Qatar's partner in the worlds largest natural-gas field and sponsor of openly violent Jihad. Iran's Shiite sect competes with Sunni in important religious aspects, but violent Jihad finds common ground with pro-Qatar, Sunni extremists, including Hamas, who agitate less aggressive pro-Saudi leaders. 

Al Jazeera is the official global television network of Qatar. It has been banned by Islamic Authorities including;  Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Sudan, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and The Palestinian Authority. They do not want Qatar's propaganda, supported by Turkey and Muslim Brotherhood alliances to destabilize their governments.

The Saudi-Qatari Islamic relationship is complex. Following the threads, these countries seem to facilitate an uncomfortably sociopathic logic which Iran's Shiite, "Russian Roulette" exploits, but Iran may have miscalculated the re-election of President Donald Trump.

Recently Benjamin Netanyahu presented a Blessing and Curse Map that outlined the expected result of Israel's preferred plan. East-West trade blessed through Oman and over the Saudi Arabian Peninsula, or cursed through Iran and Istanbul. Curiously his map ignored Qatar.

Iranian proxies in Yemen represent the curse who have blocked passage of shipping through Egypt's Suez Canal. However, India's Adani Group acquisition of Haifa Port in Israel and pan-Saudi peninsula road construction, through Jordan to Haifa Port, are a step toward a Suez alternative and blessing.  

Here's why. Europe is one of the largest consumers of natural gas. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has significantly disrupted supply. Qatar exports 25% of its Liquified Natural Gas to Europe, but supply is grossly insufficient and pipeline gas yields around 35% more profit. For pipeline gas, from the Persian Gulf, to reach Europe the Saudi peninsula must be traversed. 

In 2022 the Biden administration withdrew support for the EastMed natural gas pipeline, in partnership with Israel, Cyprus and Greece to Europe, but work continues. To ensure consistent, undisrupted supply pipeline security is paramount.  Germany sold 11 submarines to Israel to, among other defensive uses, monitor its offshore gas rigs and the anticipated underwater pipeline. 

The Abqaiq-Yanbu NGL pipeline in Saudi Arabia runs from the Persian Gulf to Red Sea, extending this route through Egypt or Jordan to Israel's EastMed pipeline would allow Persian Gulf gas reserves to flow into Europe and feed its insatiable demand. Such an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia to supply Europe, from gas fields they control, would also leverage Qatar to join or be priced out of its European market. 

The Abraham Accords Mark II will no-doubt orchestrate geo-political change founded on regional prosperity and cooperation the least of which will break European dependence on Russian energy. The profound nature of these changes under a Trump Presidency will stabilize middle east tensions through a concerted attack on finances of Iran and violent politico-religious NGO's and charities in countries like Turkey, Qatar and Egypt. 

Unlocking billion dollar/month GDP boosts for participating countries, including Qatar will be too lucrative to resist, but, aligning geopolitical rivals is hard.

 

Deep Healing From A Security Disaster

Ehud Barak’s IDF ‘old guard’ assaulted and recruited left wing IDF commanders reducing their desire, will, aptitude and moral clarity to immediately respond to critical security signals. On that tragic Simchat Torah day the apathetic, tardy IDF response will, in retrospect, be judged heinous, bordering treason, for some senior officers.

Against the backdrop of judicial reform, Lapid’s social revolt breathed life into Barak’s cessation by coup d’etat that extrinsically graded less important regions, neighborhoods, citizens and people of Israel. That moral corruption on top of the Supreme Court’s conflict with its non-governable state systematically eroded the security fabric of Israel’s society.

Events have now cast the dye for Israeli’s. The risk to security ineptitude is now far greater than any benefit egregious, revolutionary, anti-government, political insurrection can offer them. The behavior of revolt is off the table and will not be tolerated by the Israeli regime being defined by these events.

Two Supreme Court decisions over the past few days have set new precedent for the courts 'hands off government' stance. Whether they maintain that standard is yet to be seen, but the message is being delivered and people in high places will be cautious, tentative even anxious about a future in which the mechanism of government are no longer subject to the whims of the political elite.

Tel Aviv is the most ‘ethnically cleansed’ city in Israel, a place where few Arabs are employed, relative to population. The angry left, who only a few months back led revolt against the rising religious are now fighting side-by-side with their brothers coming to the fast realization that ethnic sentiments ought to be redirected to their common security insurrections including from more broadly defined terrorism.

One can only hope this has forged a new political reality in which the left, right, religious and secular elevate an uncompromising security ideal to new heights across all walks of Israeli, its neighboring and global societal security interests.

The months ahead will be difficult, but the decades, after this painful period, will no doubt be brighter than ever.

Democratic Israel - Secular or Sovereign Theocracy?

Israel Defense Force
Ultra-orthodox recruits

Since 1949 students attending Yeshiva have been exempt from national service and their learning institutions have been eligible for government funded benefits. In 2017 Israel's Supreme Court ruled that a new Draft Law would be required to change the 70 year-old practices of non-Zionist, ultra-orthodox, religious communities by ensuring their greater participation in national service. As Defense Minister Lieberman negotiated with representatives of these communities, but failed to reach an agreement over the inclusion of quota's and penalties for non-adherence. The Rabbinical leaders took umbrage that Lieberman wanted to legislate to ensure their good faith. When Lieberman discovered his Prime Minister supported the Rabbi's, he resigned from office and removed his political party from the coalition sending the country to new elections.

Perhaps the only mandate of last April 9, pre-Passover election was whether Bibi should be indicted while sitting as Prime minister, many more important questions failed to capture the electorate. On April 10 it seemed Bibi would be back with a majority, the initiated knew it would be tough to negotiate and Lieberman would be toughest of all, but very few doubted the formation of a government.

Most Israeli's, including Liberman and Netanyahu have family members that are religious so they may be sympathetic to some national religious laws and practices that impact their secular lives, but for others tolerance is scarce. For Lieberman the secular Jewish State is sacrosanct! Despite low participation the non-Zionist, ultra-orthodox sector has and continues to attract foreign philanthropy that provides a significant boost to Israel's economy. This election must decide whether the secular distrust of these religious leaders, that underscores Lieberman's Draft Law is a legislative necessity. It must also determine Israel's commitment to the US sponsored push for peace and the permanency of a divided Jerusalem.

Jared Kushner's recent, trip to North Africa. the Middle East and Israel crashed into Liberman's iceberg - in the desert. The much anticipated push for Trump's Deal of The Century, was slowed to a crawl first awaiting whether or not Israel will uphold the opinion of their religious leaders. If affirmative, Israel will begin its progressive transformation from a secular-democracy to democratic-theocracy. The religious-center and right wing will be strengthened. Secular voters will be split and the extreme-left will join Liberman in opposition. What that means for peace and the division of Jerusalem is unknown, but support for these issues have never been dependent on Israel's electorate, but its enemies Fatah and Hamas.

In the upcoming pre-Rosh Hashana (Jewish New Year) election, Lieberman's red-line will polarize religious and secular communities. Last April 10 Israel learned its previous election fate, on September 18 it will learn its next decision - both days have interesting history. 5 Nissan/10April, was the day Moses dispatched spies to report about Israel's future land, but their divided opinions caused pandemonium and split the nation. 18 Elul/18 September is strongly associated with the modern movement of orthodox Hasidim:- It's the day the Ba'al Shem Tov and the Alter Rebbe were born and the Maharal of Prague died, all are connected with the Chabad phenomena and worldwide post-war return to Judaism.

I am looking forward to Israel increasing its Torah aware elected representation, which will of course be opposed by secularists. However I believe the nation is returning to its indigenous root and will eventually establish an elected Rabbinical House of Lords that will appoint a King who will build the Temple in Jerusalem!