Mecca in Saudi Arabia is the spiritual home to Sunni Islam and birthplace of Prophet Mohammad. The Saudi Kingdom connects with hundreds of millions of Muslim pilgrims and influences global Islamic sentiment. Qatar is Saudi Arabia's neighbor, but the Saudi's strongly disagreed with their aggressive promotion of global Islamic Jihad, adopted in-part to counter Saudi influence.
Iran is Qatar's partner in the worlds largest natural-gas field and sponsor of openly violent Jihad. Iran's Shiite sect competes with Sunni in important religious aspects, but violent Jihad finds common ground with pro-Qatar, Sunni extremists, including Hamas, who agitate less aggressive pro-Saudi leaders.
Al Jazeera is the official global television network of Qatar. It has been banned by Islamic Authorities including; Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Sudan, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and The Palestinian Authority. They do not want Qatar's propaganda, supported by Turkey and Muslim Brotherhood alliances to destabilize their governments.
The Saudi-Qatari Islamic relationship is complex. Following the threads, these countries seem to facilitate an uncomfortably sociopathic logic which Iran's Shiite, "Russian Roulette" exploits, but Iran may have miscalculated the re-election of President Donald Trump.
Recently Benjamin Netanyahu presented a Blessing and Curse Map that outlined the expected result of Israel's preferred plan. East-West trade blessed through Oman and over the Saudi Arabian Peninsula, or cursed through Iran and Istanbul. Curiously his map ignored Qatar.
Iranian proxies in Yemen represent the curse who have blocked passage of shipping through Egypt's Suez Canal. However, India's Adani Group acquisition of Haifa Port in Israel and pan-Saudi peninsula road construction, through Jordan to Haifa Port, are a step toward a Suez alternative and blessing.
Here's why. Europe is one of the largest consumers of natural gas. The Russia - Ukraine conflict has significantly disrupted supply. Qatar exports 25% of its Liquified Natural Gas to Europe, but supply is grossly insufficient and pipeline gas yields around 35% more profit. For pipeline gas, from the Persian Gulf, to reach Europe the Saudi peninsula must be traversed.
In 2022 the Biden administration withdrew support for the EastMed natural gas pipeline, in partnership with Israel, Cyprus and Greece to Europe, but work continues. To ensure consistent, undisrupted supply pipeline security is paramount. Germany sold 11 submarines to Israel to, among other defensive uses, monitor its offshore gas rigs and the anticipated underwater pipeline.
The Abqaiq-Yanbu NGL pipeline in Saudi Arabia runs from the Persian Gulf to Red Sea, extending this route through Egypt or Jordan to Israel's EastMed pipeline would allow Persian Gulf gas reserves to flow into Europe and feed its insatiable demand. Such an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia to supply Europe, from gas fields they control, would also leverage Qatar to join or be priced out of its European market.
The Abraham Accords Mark II will no-doubt orchestrate geo-political change founded on regional prosperity and cooperation the least of which will break European dependence on Russian energy. The profound nature of these changes under a Trump Presidency will stabilize middle east tensions through a concerted attack on finances of Iran and violent politico-religious NGO's and charities in countries like Turkey, Qatar and Egypt.
Unlocking billion dollar/month GDP boosts for participating countries, including Qatar will be too lucrative to resist.
